A few weeks ago, Bas Balkissoon announced that he would step down as the MPP for Scarborough- Rouge River. He did not state why he was resigning, but all we know is that there will be a by-election in the coming months ahead. This is a good opportunity for the Ontario PC party to go forth on contesting this by-election. Let’s dig further into the factors why the PCs could grab this riding.
This riding a great opportunity for the PCs to pick up their first seat in Toronto, in particular. The PC’s have little seats in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) because all the other GTA ridings are mainly Liberal, some NDP. I have been in this riding a lot and have found that there is an Indian community there, so I would say that they should run an Indian star candidate, like a real estate agent. At the same time, Doug Ford is willing to run for the nomination as he said he has had good results in the area before. At the end, everything will come down in the nomination process.
It is also important to keep in mind that Ontario had 2 by-elections. One in Simcoe North, which PC leader Patrick Brown handily won his seat with 57% of the popular vote, sweeping the riding. Then we have the Whitby-Oshawa by-election, where PC candidate Lorne Coe won with 53% of the popular vote, sweeping the riding as well. We can compare these results to the provincial election results: Garfield Dunlop won Simcoe North with 44% of the vote and Christine Elliot won Whitby-Oshawa with 41% of the vote. The PCs got 28% of the vote last time in this riding while the Liberals received 39% of the vote.
The riding has voted Liberal since 1999 when it was created. What the previous by-elections can tell us is that there can be a political transition for the first time in the riding’s history. At the same time, we have to consider that this riding is not a Tory stronghold like the other two ridings, so expect a long hard fight in this riding. Nevertheless, it is important to consider the external factors that could affect the outcome in Scarborough-Rouge River.
The Ontario PCs have a shot at this by-election. It certainly won’t be the last. The Liberals have a 58 seat majority, they just have to lose a minimum 4 seats in order to be reduced to a minority. With Kathleen Wynne’s approval rating dropping by the second, we can expect the PCs to secure this by-election.
I’m BossMCPolitical, and the Liberal regime is coming to an end!